Brazil to win it

It starts today, my bad feeling is getting worse. Still, here is how I expect the rest of the tournament to pan out.

 

In the quarter finals Brazil will beat Slovakia.

 

France will beat Ghana, because you just know they are going to make the last four after the Thierry Henry handball incident. Also, Africa really wants a semi-finalist, but, in line with the dismal nature of this tournament, I predict they will fail in horrendous circumstances. Another Henry hand of Gaul anyone?

 

Germany and Argentina have a great World Cup history.  In 1958 West Germany beat Argentina 3-1 in a group game. They drew 0-0 in 1966. East Germany held Argentina to 1-1 in 1974. Then there were two finals: Argentina won 3-2 in 1986, four years later West Germany got revenge in that horrible end to a horrible tournament, 1-0. Germany, as they now are, knocked Argentina out in the quarter final four years ago, on penalties after a 1-1 draw. There was a big fight at the end. To conclude from this, Argentina have only one once against a German team. But, this being away from Europe, its got to be their time. Argentina into the last four.

 

Italy and Spain have also played each other in crucial finals games before. It began with Italy’s 1-0 win in a quarter final replay, after a 1-1, at home in 1934. Italy also won, by 2-1, in a bad tempered quarter final in 1994. They have met in the European Championships too. It was 0-0 in 1980, Italy won 1-0 eight years later, but Spain won on pens after a nil-all draw two years ago. I’m going for Italy to cause an upset here, because two of Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Italy or France has been in every final since the 1970s.

 

It leaves the semis like this:

 

Brazil v France

Argentina v Italy

 

That will result in Brazil beating France. France knocked out the Brazilians the last three times they have met - in 1986, in the 1998 final, and in 2006. Brazil will end that sequence.

 

Italy will beat Argentina because out of nine non-European World Cups seven have been between a South American team and a European one.

 

It means Brazil will play Italy in a non-European final just as they did in 1970 and 1994, and Brazil will complete a hat-trick, to remain the only team that wins the tournament wherever it’s played outside Europe.

 

But then again, don’t rule out a Argentina v France final, or even Spain v Brazil, or Brazil v Germany, or… you get the picture. That’s the great thing about football, sometimes, only sometimes mind, there is an upset. It could even be England.

Round of 16 predictions

I’ve got a bad feeling about this. The World Cup, that is. I’m fearing a dismal tournament, worse than Italia 90 or Asia in 2002. I’m worried it will be cold, disorganised, poorly attended and with a low standard of football. All the Europeans are in poor form, apart from maybe Spain, the Africans, as usual, are disorganised, the rest useless, which leaves the South Americans, who will all play great football, particularly Argentina, but can’t defend, with the exception of Brazil. And I’ve got Serbia in the sweepstake.

 

Here are my predictions for the second round:

 

Easy one first. Germany will beat Slovenia.

 

Because Slovakia have never qualified before they have never met the Netherlands. But Czechoslovakia have, and won 3-0 in 1938. More recently the two have faced off in the European Championships. Czechoslovakia won 3-1 in the semi-final in 1976, and it was 1-1 in 1980. The Netherlands played Czech Republic in 2000 and 2000, winning the first 1-0 but losing the other 3-2. One team from central/eastern Europe always gets to the quarters. So it’s Slovakia in an upset.

 

The other all Euro tie is Italy v Denmark. They haven’t met in the WC but have in the European Championship. In 1988, Italy won 2-0, and in 2004 they drew 0-0, a moral victory for the Danes who conveniently drew with Sweden later on to knock Italy out. So Italy will get revenge this time.

 

The two all South American clashes are potential classics. In the 1962 semi final Brazil beat hosts Chile 4-2. Thirty eight years later Brazil won again, 4-1. In the qualifiers for this tournament Brazil won 3-0 and 4-2. Brazil will win again in the finals.

 

Uruguay and Argentina don’t like each other. The Uruguayans won the inaugural WC beating Argentina at home, in the final, 4-2, in 1930. Argentina got revenge in 1986 winning 1-0 on their way to their second tournament triumph. Argentina won both games in the qualifiers for this one, 2-1 and 1-0, and should be victorious again.

 

The three Europe v Africa ties are harder to predict. And one will see an African side getting through.

 

France have a patchy record against African teams in the finals. A 3-0 win against South Africa in 1998, when they were hosts, was followed by the famous 1-0 defeat to Senegal in 2002. They beat Togo 2-0 in 1996. It’s not great. Nigeria’s record against European teams is patchy. Wins against Bulgaria, Greece, and Spain, defeats against Italy, Denmark and Sweden, a draw with England. France will just shade it.

 

Cote d’Ivoire lost to Netherlands, and Argentina, last time, beating Serbia 3-2. Not brilliant. Spain beat Algeria 3-0 in 1986, lost to Nigeria in France, beat South Africa 3-2 in 2002, and Tunisia 3-1 four years ago. Again, not inspiring. But it’s Spain, and they should win.

 

Which means England are the team to blow it. Ghana beat Czech Republic 2-0 in Germany, and only lost to Brazil and eventual winners Italy in that WC. England drew 0-0 with Morocco in 1986, scraped past Cameroon 3-2 in 1990, beat a clueless Tunisian side in 1998, bored everyone with a 0-0 against Nigeria in 2002. It’s going to go wrong this time, probably on penalties.

 

Leaves the quarter finals looking like this:

 

Slovakia v Brazil

France v Ghana

Germany v Argentina

Italy v Spain

 

 

Group F, G and H predictions

Italy’s World Cup record – hilarious, eh? Either brilliant (four WC triumphs) or disastrous (North Korea, South Korea, Republic of Ireland, various penalty shootout debacles). But the Azzurri will qualify from Group F.

 

The Italians’ first game is their hardest. They have played Paraguay before,, in a 1950 group game, winning 2-0. They will win again this time because Paraguay have yet to beat a major European team in the WC.

 

New Zealand’s only WC appearance was in 1982 when they lost all three games, and even managed to lose against perennial minnow fodder Scotland. Slovakia are in their first WC but will win this one.

 

Slovakia and Paraguay will draw.

 

Italy will massacre New Zealand, probably 1-0.

 

Paraguay will also beat New Zealand.

 

Which means Italy and Slovakia will draw.

 

Then the group looks like this:

 

1 Italy 7pts

2 Slovakia 5pts

3 Paraguay 4pts

5 New Zealand 0pts

 

Group G starts off with the easiest prediction of the World Cup. Brazil will beat the Democratic Republic of Korea. Right, that’s out the way, now things get trickier.

 

Cote d’Ivoire beat a moribund Serbia in the last World Cup. This time they meet Portugal. The Portuguese have not got a great WC record, despite reaching the semis twice. Both times were in Europe. Their only two other WC finals were in Mexico 1986 when they lost to Morocco, and Japan/S Korea where then managed to lose to the Koreans and the USA. So this will be a draw.

 

Brazil has never played Cote d’Ivoire before, but the Ivorians lost to Argentina four years ago and will lose this one too.

 

Portugal will beat DPR Korea, but probably not by the 5-3 score when they met in 1966.

 

Portugal also famously beat Brazil in 1966, by 3-1. This time Brazil will win the biggest grudge match of the first round.

 

Cote d’Ivoire will beat DPR Korea by a huge score to edge out the Portuguese.

 

Group ends like this:

 

1 Brazil 9pts

2 Cote d’Ivoire 4pts

3 Portugal 4pts

4 DPR Korea 0pts

 

Group H will see Honduras in their second WC. But Chile will be too skilful for them and win.

 

Spain beat Switzerland 2-1 in 1966 and 3-0 in 1994 and will make it a hat-trick this time.

 

Chile beat Switzerland 3-1 in 1962 when they were hosts. This one will be a draw.

 

Spain were uproariously held to a 1-1 draw by Honduras at home in 1982. No repeat this time, Spain will win.

 

Spain beat Chile 2-0 in 1950, but already through will allow the Chileans to claim a draw.

 

Switzerland will beat Honduras.

 

The group will end:

 

1 Spain 7pts

2 Chile 5 pts

3 Switzerland 4pts

4 Honduras 0pts.

 

The second round then looks like this:

 

France v Nigeria

England v Ghana

Germany v Slovenia

Argentina v Uruguay

Netherlands v Slovakia

Brazil v Chile

Italy v Denmark

Spain v Cote d’Ivoire

 

 

 

 

Group E predictions

Group E is another interesting one with Netherlands, Denmark and Cameroon all having a realistic chance of making the knock-out, and Japan having a realistic chance of getting no points.

 

Netherlands and Denmark have never played each other in the World Cup before. But they have met twice in the European Championships. In 1992, Denmark won on penalties, after a 2-2 draw, in the semi-final and went on to win a tournament Netherlands were probably the best team in. In 2000 Netherlands hammered Denmark 3-0, but they were the host nation. I’m predicting another opening match draw.

 

Japan have played in the last three WCs with a mind-boggling lack of success for a country that actually likes football. In 1998 and 2006 they played a total of six games losing five and drawing one. Even when they were hosts in 2002 they got knocked out in the second round and only beat Tunisia and scraped past Russia. Cameroon will slaughter them.

 

Japan won’t have any more luck against Netherlands, who will also destroy them.

 

Denmark have only qualified for the WC three times before, but each time they have made it through the group. Their record is P13, W7, D2, L4. They beat Nigeria in the second round, 4-1, in 1998, and drew 1-1 group games with South Africa in 1998, and Senegal in 2002. Despite five qualifications, Cameroon have only gone past the group stage once, that memorable run to the quarters in 1990. They have only won four of 17 WC games and just one of the last nine, spread across three WCs. Only one of those wins was against a European team, Romania in 1990. This one will be a draw.

 

Denmark will beat Japan.

 

That leaves Netherlands to play Cameroon. Of Cameroon’s six WC defeats they have lost to USSR, England, Russia, Italy, and Germany. It doesn’t look good for them. Post WWII Netherlands have only lost two group matches out of 18 and have never gone out at this stage. In 1990 they drew 1-1 with Egypt, in 2004 beat Morocco, and last time beat Cote d’Ivoire. So Netherlands will win this one.

 

That leaves the group like this:

 

1 Netherlands 7pts

2 Denmark 5pts

3 Cameroon 4pts

4 Japan 0pts

Group D predictions

Now, that’s what I call a World Cup group. Group D has four teams in it, any of which could make it to the second round – and a potential date with England.

 

Germany kick off against Australia. They played each other in 1974 – twice. Actually, Australia played both West and East Germany. Lost both, 3-0 and 2-0. Australia have improved of late, but are a horrible bunch of cloggers. They’ll give someone a hard time. But it won’t be Germany, who will win.

 

Serbia has never been in the WC before, but was a major part of Yugoslavia and competed last time with Montenegro stapled to it. They narrowly lost in 2006 to Cote d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast), despite being one of the worst teams in the tournament. Ghana, who they play this time, beat the Czechs four years ago. I’m going for a draw.

 

Germany has never played Serbia before, but met Yugoslavia six times in the WC and once in the European Championships. (West) Germany won five of those, losing one (1962) and drawing one (1998). Germany should win again, but watch out for the Serbs who are skilful. Germany to edge it.

 

Australia have only won one WC finals game out of seven. That was against Japan and they were losing until a late rally. In 2006 Ghana beat USA and the Czechs and only lost to Italy and Brazil. Being an African team, Ghana will win.

 

Serbia will be too skilful for Australia and will win that one.

 

Ghana will shock the Germans by taking a point off them.

 

That means the group ends up looking like this:

 

1 Germany 7pts

2 Ghana 5pts

3 Serbia 4pts

4 Australia 0pts  

Group C prediction

England have never had a groups as easy as the one they have landed in South Africa. So Group C should be a doddle, eh? All they’ve got to do is turn up and they’re through? Well, think about this:

 

England have played USA once. They lost. The 1950 one-niller was probably the greatest upset in the history of the WC, Italy’s various disasters excepted. But lightning doesn’t strike twice. Or does it? England were probably further up the world pecking order 60 years ago and USA were certainly lower. England have only once won all their group games: 1982. Even then they struggled to beat Kuwait. The USA’s super fit college boys can’t really play football, but they are super fit college boys and will be hard to beat. This is the one they would most like to be hard to beat in. And they got to the final, albeit luckily, of last year’s Confederations Cup warm up. So I’m predicting England and USA to draw.

 

Algeria v Slovenia is anyone’s guess. They have never played each other in the finals, and Slovenia have never won a match in the finals of a tournament. They drew two out of three at Euro 2000 and lost all three at WC 2002. They will win one eventually, but I don’t think it will be this one, so I’m going to opt for another draw.

 

USA v Slovenia. Lets look at the USA’s WC record. They somehow beat Belgium and Paraguay in the frankly unrepresentative 1930 tournament before being murdered by Argentina 6-1.They didn’t turn up again for 20 years, and when they did got walloped by Spain and Chile (5-2) but managed to - surprise, surprise – beat England. No one heard of them again for another 40 years when they qualified for Italia 90 and suffered their obligatory hammering, 5-1 to Czechoslovakia, and lost their other two games. They were also fairly rubbish as host nation in 1994, scraping through their group with a win against Colombia, but losing to Romania and Brazil. In France, four years later, they lost all three again and hilariously were beaten by Iran. The completely haywire 2002 WC did include USA beating Portugal and qualifying for the knockouts, although losing to pathetic Poland, where they beat Mexico in a grudge match and then lost to Germany in the quarters. Four years ago they were back to their usual appalling form, finishing bottom of the group, but getting a draw with Italy (who else). So, overall, it’s a story of rubbish punctuated with the odd good result against a decent side, Slovenia aren’t that decent and will win this one on skill.

 

On paper Algeria are no match for England. This game isn’t being played on paper. The two haven’t played in the WC before but England have had narrow squeaks against North African teams before: Morocco (0-0, Ray Wilkins sent off), Egypt (1-0, relying on a goal from Mark Wright), Tunisia (actually, a more comfortable 2-0). They also scraped past Kuwait 1-0 in 1982. I expect another close win for England.

 

Algeria will bounce back to beat the USA, however. Algeria beat West Germany and Chile in 1982, drew with Northern Ireland and lost just 1-0 to Brazil in 1986. They got to the semi-final of this year’s African Cup of Nations.

 

Which leaves England v Slovenia, a country of 1.5million people, whose team wears green and has produced a skilful, long-haired global superstar (Zlatko Zahovic). Hang on, that’s like Northern Ireland, and we all know what happened the last time England played them. The teams will draw and both go through.

 

That leaves the group like this:

 

1 England 5pts

2 Slovenia 5pts

3 Algeria 4pts

4 USA 1pt

 

I’m putting England on top on goals scored.

 

 

Group B predictions

World Cup Group B features three teams who were in the same pool in 1994: Argentina, Greece and Nigeria. It was the World Cup where Diego Maradona got chucked out for drugs. He’s back this summer. Can’t wait. Anyhow, here are my predictions.

 

Korea Republic (South Korea) kick off against Greece. They have never played each other before in the finals and both are rubbish. If you don’t count Euro 2004, which Greece won in a huge upset, the Greeks have played in the finals of three other tournaments (Euro 1980 and 2004, and WC 1994), with the barnstorming record of played nine, won none, drawn one, lost eight. South Korea, if you don’t count their highly dubious march to the WC semis in 2002, when they were host nation, have played in six WCs and never got past the first round. Their wonderful record is: played 17, won one (yes, one. Against African powerhouse Togo), drawn five, lost 11. I’m predicting a draw.

 

Argentina beat Nigeria 2-1 in 1994 and 1-0 in 2002. As teams rarely win all their group games, I’m going for a draw in this one.

 

Nigeria beat Greece 2-0 in 1994. I’m going for another Nigeria win this time.

 

Argentina easily beat South Korea 3-1 on their way to glory in 1986. Maradona’s boys will win again.

 

Nigeria and South Korea have never met in the WC before. But Nigeria have played in three WCs and got to the second round twice, only missing out in 2002 when they were in a group of death with England, Sweden and Argentina. They’ve played 11, won four, drawn one and lost six. Also, they came third in this year’s African Cup of Nations and should beat the Koreans.

 

Argentina walloped Greece 4-0 in 1994 and will beat them again this summer.

 

That leaves the group like this:

 

1 Argentina 7pts

2 Nigeria 7pts

3 Greece 1pt

4 South Korea 1pt

 

I’m putting Argentina on top on goal difference, as with all their attacking options they could get a bucketful against the hopeless Greeks and Koreans.

 

HE NEVER DID (1): Headband wearing, bearded Brighton and Hove Albion centre-half Steve Foster actually played for England in the WC. I know people who believe in ghosts, elves, the Loch Ness monster, and the tooth fairy who won’t swallow that one. But it’s true. For some reason, he was selected against Kuwait in 1982, replacing Terry Butcher, who must have been injured otherwise there is no sensible explanation. Still it was only Kuwait (England won 1-0).